Parlay Math: Expected Value, Correlations, and Risk Stacking

Parlays attract bettors with the promise of outsized returns. By linking multiple wagers into one ticket, you multiply the odds—and the potential payout. Yet this multiplication also compounds risk, making parlays one of the hardest ways to sustain long-term profits. The key lies in math: how expected value (EV) is calculated, why correlations matter, and… Continue reading Parlay Math: Expected Value, Correlations, and Risk Stacking

Live Betting Edges: Tempo Shifts and Model Lag

Live betting has transformed the sports wagering landscape, turning every possession, play, or point into a potential market. Odds adjust in real time based on game state, and sportsbooks rely on algorithms to keep lines sharp. Yet those algorithms aren’t perfect: they react to score, clock, and general pace, but can lag behind nuanced tempo… Continue reading Live Betting Edges: Tempo Shifts and Model Lag